A Multidimensional Vulnerability Index for Adults 65+: Methodological Framework and Analytical Protocol

Abstract

In the framework of the PKKZH 2025 project on aging in Albania a primary survey of older persons (65+) across several selected municipalities will take place.  This paper details, in advance of fieldwork, the analytical protocol by which a multi dimensional vulnerability index for older persons will be constructed from the survey instrument and ranked across municipalities. First, the study will apply the Alkire–Foster counting method. This will produce the adjusted headcount ratio, M0. The deprivation cut-offs, weights, and poverty cut-off k will be defined in advance. Second, it will use polychoric principal component analysis. This is suitable because the survey items are ordinal. A continuous vulnerability score will also be generated by these to methods combined. Four domains derived from the questionnaire (economic conditions, health and functional limitation, social connectedness, and instrumental support availability), will be the basis for the indicators, with twelve underlying items mapped to those domains. A protocol for the second stage analysis is planned. The protocol will link link municipal vulnerability rankings with four Census 2023 structural variables (the old age dependency ratio, the share of older persons living alone, the share of the 65+ population with primary education or less and the rural share of residents). The paper presents the methodology with a fully worked illustrative example on simulated micro-data. At this stage no empirical findings on real respondents are reported. The aim of this preregistering of analytical plan is three folded: reduces post-hoc decision; the methodology is reviewed before the results are available; prepares the next stage to focus on findings rather than methodology debate.