Decision-Making in Geopolitical and Hybrid Threat

Abstract

Objectives: This paper aims to develop a hybrid decision-making framework capable of improving organizational responses to economic insecurity and hybrid risks in complex environments. The study addresses the limitations of traditional managerial decision-making and explores the integration of structured military approaches.

Prior Work: The research builds on theories of bounded rationality (Simon, 1997), adaptive decision-making, and crisis management, as well as on the structured logic of the Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP), widely used in high-risk environments.

Approach: The study employs a qualitative and conceptual methodology, based on comparative analysis between military and civilian decision-making models and on interdisciplinary synthesis from strategic management, public administration, and security studies.

Results: The paper proposes a Hybrid Decision-Making Model (HDMM) that integrates structured analysis, scenario development, and adaptive feedback mechanisms. The model enhances decision coherence, reduces cognitive bias, and improves resilience in complex environments.

Implications: The findings are relevant for academics, policymakers, and institutional leaders, offering a framework applicable in public administration, critical infrastructure management, and economic security governance.

Value: The paper contributes a novel interdisciplinary model that bridges military and civilian decision-making, offering both theoretical advancement and practical applicability in managing hybrid risks.